shout box

Deal or No Deal is a television game show format owned by Dutch-based production company Endemol, known for creating such shows as Big Brother. The basic format of Deal or No Deal consists of a number of cases (usually 26, but varies in some countries) each containing a different amount of money. Not knowing the sum of money in each case, the contestant picks one case which potentially contains the contestant's prize. They then open the remaining cases, one by one, revealing the money they contained. At predetermined intervals the contestant receives an offer from the bank (run by "The Banker") to purchase the originally chosen case from the contestant, the offer being based on the potential value of the contestant's case. The contestant must then decide whether to take the deal from the bank, or to continue opening cases. If the contestant decides not to take the deal and reveals low value cases, then the next bank offer is likely to be higher (as the contestant's case is proven not to contain these low values). Alternatively, there is risk in revealing higher values, lowering future offers from the bank. The aim of this system is to try and make an exciting and suspenseful game.

The format of Deal or No Deal varies in each country. In the UK version, for example, contestants choose from 22 boxes rather than 26 briefcases. The concept of pitting a contestant against an in-house adversary (in this show, the Banker) is unusual, though not unique, among game shows.

Optimal Strategy -- When to Deal

Deal or No Deal is a repeated exercise in decision theory -- the player must decide whether he/she values the banker's offer more than he/she does the possible prizes. The expected winning at any point in the game is the mean of the values contained in the unopened boxes. This expected value of the player's position is what he/she should expect to win if he/she refuses all offers, or what to expect if he/she were to open his/her own briefcase. As the game progresses, the possible content -- or expected value -- of the chosen briefcase changes. For example, if the top prize is revealed, then the expected value goes down.

To maximize their expected return without regard to risk, a player's optimal strategy is to reject the banker's offer if it is below the mean value of the unrevealed cases. Typically, the banker's offer undervalues the remaining cases significantly at the start of a game. The gap closes later on, giving the player a strong motivation to continue to play early in the game, but less so as the game progresses. Because the banker's deals are almost always lower than the expected value, "no deal" seems to be statistically a better choice. In fact the only time the banker's deal is above the expected value is when he offers retrospective deals to players who have already accepted one.

However, maximizing expected return is only optimal if the player can replay the game many times. Since each player only plays once, he/she must balance his/her tolerance for risk with the expected winnings. This is analogous to modern portfolio theory, where a trade-off exists between higher expected return and investment risk (variously quantified as spread, variance, standard deviation or beta coefficient). A safe investment usually offers a lower average return than a speculative investment. The optimal strategy depends then on the investor's risk aversion.

In addition, optimal strategy depends on the utility or satisfaction of the various amounts of money to the player. For example, most people would agree that the difference between winning $750,000 and $1,000,000 is much less than the difference between winning $1 and $250,001, even though the dollar difference is the same. The utility curve for money for a player is non-linear and is subject to the law of diminishing returns. A player who badly needs money may be willing to "cash out" for a bank offer of $50,000 and forgo a chance at $1 million, an opportunity that might fetch him little at the end.

Actual play, as opposed to optimal or "best" play, is also influenced by psychological factors, including perceived luck, fear of embarrassment, and pressure from the audience, family or friends.

Kapamilya, Deal or No Deal

Kapamilya, Deal or No Deal, the Philippine franchise of Deal or No Deal, hosted by Pilipinas, Game KNB? host, Kris Aquino, premiered on June 5, 2006 on ABS-CBN. The grand prize is PHP2 million ($36,000.00). The game show's tagline is "Ang Kapalaran mo, Desisyon Mo" which in turn translates in English as "Your Fate is Your Decision." This is the first weekday primetime game show in the Philippines since the so-called primetime game show craze died down in late 2002, with Pilipinas, Game KNB?, the last remaining show among the weekday primetime game shows, reformatted into a daytime one after a relatively brief hiatus (although it had a primetime spinoff called Pasko Na, Game KNB? for two weeks on December 2005 to January 2006).

Case values

The foreign exchange rate used in the rest of the article is PHP52.00:US$1.00.

PHP1 ($0.01) PHP1,000 ($27.20)
PHP5 ($0.09) PHP2,500 ($55.50)
PHP10 ($0.18) PHP5,000 ($136.00)
PHP25 ($0.48) PHP10,000 ($272.00)
PHP50 ($0.90) PHP25,000 ($680.00)
PHP75 ($1.35) PHP50,000 ($1,360.00)
PHP100 ($1.80) PHP100,000 ($2,720.00)
PHP150 ($2.70) PHP200,000 ($5,440.00)
PHP200 ($3.60) PHP300,000 ($8,160.00)
PHP300 ($5.40) PHP400,000 ($10,880.00)
PHP400 ($7.20) PHP500,000 ($13,600.00)
PHP500 ($9.00) PHP1,000,000 ($18,000.00)
PHP750 ($13.60) PHP2,000,000 ($36,000.00)

Records and statistics

* Highest potential bank offer: PHP999,000 ($19,211.00) (June 30, 2006, after accepting PHP140,000 ($2,670.00))
* Lowest potential bank offer: PHP0.00 ($0.00) (July 5, 2006, after accepting PHP220,000 ($4,300))
* Highest bank offer: PHP450,000 ($8,654.00) (June 26, 2006) (Declined)
* Lowest bank offer: PHP50 ($0.96) (July 14, 2006)(Declined)
* Highest bank offer turned down: PHP450,000 ($8,654.00) (June 26, 2006)
* Most money won (Deal): PHP240,000 ($4,615.00) (June 15, 2006)
* Most money won (No Deal): PHP200,000 ($5,440.00) (July 10, 2006)
* Least money won (Deal): PHP400 ($7.20) (July 6, 2006)
* Least money won (No Deal): PHP75 ($1.44) (July 14, 2006)
* Highest amount in a contestant's briefcase: PHP2,000,000 ($36,000) (June 30, 2006)
* Lowest amount in a contestant's briefcase: PHP50.00 (July 6, 2006)
* Briefcase most commonly chosen: Briefcase 16 (June 14, 16 and July 11 2006)
* Briefcase usually containing the top prize: Briefcase 18 (5 times) & 19 (4 times).
* Briefcase usually containing the lowest prize (PHP 1): Briefcase 13 (3 times)
* Episodes when the banker's offers never went down: (June 13, 14, 15, & July 5, 2006)
* Amount most commonly in a contestant's case: PHP50,000 ($962) (June 5, 7 & 12, 2006)
* Amount the banker offered more than once: PHP17,000 ($327.00) which was offered 3 times in a row (June 22, 2006)
* Best deal by pesos: PHP219,950 ($4,229); more than the case amount (PHP220,000 for PHP50, July 5, 2006)
* Best deal by ratio: 4,440 times case amount (PHP220,000 for PHP50, July 5, 2006)
* Worst deal by pesos & ratio: PHP1,860,000 ($33,818); less than the case amount (PHP140,000 for PHP2,000,000, June 30, 2006) & PHP1,876,000 less than the case amount (PHP124,000 for PHP2,000,000, July 17, 2006)
* Games when the briefcase picked by contestant contains the top prize: June 30 and July 17, 2006
* Game when the very first briefcase opened contains PHP1.00 ($.01): June 14, 2006
* Game when the very first briefcase opened contains PHP2,000,000 ($36,000): June 13, 2006, July 4, 2006, & July 13, 2006.
* Game with the most significant decline of Banker's offer in pesos: June 26, 2006 episode (PHP 233,000 after refusing PHP450,000 banker's offer in a Pre-Deal situation)
* Game with the most significant decline of Banker's offer in ratio: July 6, 2006 episode (PHP300 after refusing PHP70,000 banker's offer in a Pre-Deal situation, losing 233 times the original amount)
* Non-cash Prizes offered: Trip for two to Boracay (July 7, 2006)
* Highest Prize won: PHP240,000 (June 15, 2006)
* Lowest Prize won: PHP75 (July 14, 2006)


Trivia

* Roughly two weeks after the pilot episode, the show had a very "special guest"—Representative Alfonso "Boy" Umali Jr,. of Oriental Mindoro. His game ended with him winning PHP300 ($5.40) which is the amount inside the briefcase he chose and defended all throughout the game. After the game, he promised his constituents, for whom he played the game, a thousand times that amount and commented to Kris that show is not for those who are "too brave."

* Toni Gonzaga, host of the spoof Kapamilya, Meal or No Meal which is aired in a gag-show of the same network, was the special guest in the June 29, 2006 episode.

* The June 30, 2006 episode of the show saw three records being set or broken: the first time a case containing the two million pesos was picked by a contestant, the highest potential bank offer at PHP999,000 ($17,900), and the worst loss in pesos. The contestant, Josie Cristobal, a cancer patient survivor, took the banker's offer of PHP140,000 ($2,692) "just to make sure." It turned out that the briefcase she chose did contain the top prize, making a loss of PHP1,860,000 ($35,700). Kris commented after that game that while the game may not be for those who are too brash (see above), it may not be for those who are too careful either. It was also the episode where in the last two remaining cases contained the highest and lowest amounts (PHP1.00 and PHP2,000,000.00). The contestant chose the briefcase containing PHP2,000,000 (briefcase number 18) because it was the basketball jersey number of Kris Aquino's husband James Yap. The contestant was a huge fan of the basketball star. On the other hand, the number of the briefcase containing PHP1.00 (briefcase number 14) was the birthdate of Kris Aquino.

* The June 30 incident was once again seen in the July 17 episode. The contestant's case contained the top prize, but she accepted the banker's offer of PHP124,000 ($2385), making a loss of PHP1,876,000 ($35,750). The contestant made the worst deal to date.

* The episodes aired from July 3 to 7 featured couples. But it didn't limit itself to actual husband-and-wife pairs, but a pair of persons with an existing relationship. The first and third couples featured were indeed husband-and-wife pairs while the three other couples included a pair of male fraternal twins, a seminarian and his aunt being founders of a financially-challenged foundation for disabled persons, and an engaged couple. Except for the third couple who won PHP220,000 ($4,230), none of the pairs took home a prize that exceeded PHP80,000 ($1,538). The seminarian took home PHP400 ($7.20), the lowest amount won in a Deal to date.

* The July 7 episode also saw the first two non-monetary offers from the banker: a 3-day, 3-night stay at a five-star hotel and a trip to Boracay, both "all-expenses paid." The couple would refuse each offer and later took the final banker's offer of PHP79,000 ($1,519). Despite the fact that their briefcase contained PHP300,000 ($8,160), they still got the Boracay vacation courtesy of Kris.

* On July 10, 2006, Kris commented that the contestant was able to remove completely all the low values in a full game for the first time, with 3 high values remaining. The contestant won the highest prize in a No-Deal situation (PHP200,000) to date. Coincidentally, it was in this episode when the host revealed that the winnings are subject to tax.

* For the first time, the banker offered amounts where the digits are the same. On July 12, 2006, the initial offer of the banker was PHP33,333, then it became PHP44,444, then down to PHP8,888, then up again to PHP22,222, then down again to PHP5,555, and lastly, down to PHP2,222. The banker eventually offered PHP6,000, which the contestant accepted.

* The July 14 episode featured psychic Rene Mariano playing an unlucky game. All of the values at the right side of the money board were opened until the 5th round. From the 4th to 7th round, all of the highest values each round were opened. For the first time, the banker's last four offers were lower than PHP150 (PHP80, PHP50, PHP75, & PHP100 in that order). Like Representative Umali, he defended his game to the end & won PHP75 ($0.96), the lowest ever in a no-deal situation. The psychic chose briefcase 25 because it was Jesus' birthday. This episode became controversial because the host praised the psychic's ability when he predicted that Hero Angeles, a former teen star and talent-search winner from the same network, would lose his career due to revelations in [The Buzz (talk show)|The Buzz]] (aired in the same network), a program which Kris co-hosts.

* The PHP1,000,000 briefcase was chosen for the first time by the contestant last July 24. However, she agreed to the banker's offer of PHP121,000 ($2327), making a loss of PHP879,000.


Parodies

Criticisms

Philippine Daily Inquirer columnist Nestor U. Torre expressed disappointment on the show because it is not "all that spellbinding and empathetic" since the briefcase a contestant has chosen would keep it to the end (contrary to some versions which exchanging briefcases is allowed). Also, he pointed out that the format of the show limited Aquino's effectivity as a host.